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2014 mortgage market predictions

Refinances   Purchase Markets \  October 30, 2013 10:24 am

2014 mortgage market predictions

"Last Tuesday's underwhelming jobs report pushed mortgage rates below 4 percent for the first time in four months," stated Erin Lantz, director of mortgages at Zillow. "In the week ahead, we expect rates likely will stay depressed as markets digest modestly improving economic data and the lingering impact of the government shutdown."

The rate for a 15-year term loan fell to 3 percent, compared to 3.02 percent last week. Averages for adjustable-rate mortgages had fallen as well, from 2.75 percent to 2.7 percent. While the changes are minimal, the downward trend suggests that borrowers will be able to get low rates until next year.

"Affordability is still good  compared to any time over the last 50 years. Mortgage rates are still around 4.5 percent; that's not high," Robert Shiller, co-founder of the Case-Shiller index, told CNBC. "Homes are still roughly, in real terms, where they were 25 to 50 years ago," he said.

Market predictions
The Mortgage Brokers Association recently reported its 2014 economic forecast and expected mortgage applications to drop, despite low rates. As economic conditions improve, the Federal Reserve is expected to taper its quantitative easing program, which will influence interest rates to rise. As a result, fewer homeowners are expected to apply for refinance loans.

However, mortgage purchase loans are expected to increase in 2014, according to the MBA report. As home prices continue to rise, more borrowers are likely to be more confident in the market and become homeowners.

"We expect mortgage rates  will increase above 5 percent in 2014 and then increase further to 5.3 percent by the end of 2015," Jay Brinkman, chief economist and senior vice president for research and education at the MBA, told Mortgage News Daily. "As a result, mortgage refinancing will continue to drop, and borrowers seeking to tap the equity in their homes will be more likely to rely on home equity seconds rather than cash-out refinances"

 

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